The times they are a changin’ … in higher education.

Geographic shifts, demographic shifts and other changes are contributing to potentially radical alterations in the field of post-secondary education and its production of college and university-bound high school graduates. In general, a significant change is expected in numbers, as downward trends in enrollment are predicted in coming years. As a result, colleges and universities across the nation are developing new initiatives in order to address these demographic variations, including increased financial aid options and the launch of new online education opportunities.

American colleges and universities have been seemingly flooded with tremendous numbers of high school graduates in recent years; however, this well may soon be drying up. According to the nonprofit organization Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), after 14 years in a row of rising numbers of high school graduates, the realm of higher education should prepare for a projected fall in high school graduation rates and college-bound student numbers for the next few years.

As populations ebb and flow across the country with some regions losing numbers as others gain, schools nationwide are inevitably affected. A region’s population makeup, economic health, job prospects for college graduates and other factors influence its rate of high school graduates going on to pursue further education.

Schools in states with reputations for high school graduates pursuing university study in other regions need to be especially wary of exterior factors negatively affecting the numbers of students who apply to and subsequently enroll in courses, and focus on retaining local students as well as recruiting men and women from other states and areas.

Due to the aging populations and a trend of migration to other areas, WICHE reports that the Midwest and Northeast will be the hardest hit by declining high school graduate and college enrollment numbers.

In a summary of its March 2008 report, “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022,” WICHE states the following:

…the U.S. production of high school graduates is set to begin a long decline, fueled by precipitous drops in the Northeast and Midwest. Our nation and many states will also witness a dramatic shift in the racial/ethnic composition of their student bodies and high school graduating classes, with rising numbers of graduates from populations our educational institutions haven’t served well in the past — especially Hispanics — offsetting a substantial decline in white non-Hispanic graduates.

As the above quote states, constituents in the higher education field are projecting a continued decline in non-Hispanic white students — the population traditionally most likely to attend four-year colleges — and a steady increase in minority students in the make-up of high school graduates. This will essentially flip the majority and minority status over time. According to WICHE, the class of 2010 is projected to be the first “majority minority” class of high school graduates (less than 50 percent white) in the western United States; some individual states, including California, Texas, Hawaii and New Mexico, have already reached this milestone.

These population shifts will affect schools and students alike. Depending on their location, ethnicity and other factors, students could see improvements or declines in admission and financial aid availability. Moreover, colleges and universities will need to revise their approaches to recruiting individual students and shaping student bodies as a whole. Ideas for keeping up with the changing times include introducing the idea of college preparation and the importance of higher education at a younger age and focus these ideas more heavily toward demographics not traditionally targeted as potential college students.

Also, more comprehensive financial aid and financial aid education must be implemented for students and their families. For instance, non-Hispanic white families are the most likely population segment to borrow money, but this group’s college-bound numbers are expected to decline. Hispanic high school graduate numbers, on the other hand, are expected to rise, but this population has been shown to be more reluctant to accept loaned or borrowed money.

The United States’ census make-up is continually changing. The field of higher education must be flexible and continually shift with such changes. From new modes of appealing to students to revised methods of educating developing workforces, American higher education must work to keep up with the 21st century.